Power generating companies and coal traders have welcomed Coal India Limited (CIL)’s move to withdraw rise in coal prices. However, they have sought clarity on the rollback and on how the gross calorific value (GCV) mechanism would be cost-neutral.

CIL had raised coal prices under a new pricing mechanism, under which the prices were linked to the quality of coal. However, this was opposed by power, steel and cement firms.

The Maharashtra State Power Generation Company (MahaGenco) is expected to get annual relief of Rs 1,400 crore after the rollback in prices. Managing director Subrat Ratho told Business Standard, “On the basis of the GCV-based billing that coal companies had indicated to us in January, we had estimated there would be an additional burden of Rs 1,400 crore. Now, with the withdrawal of the price rise, we would like to know from coal companies whether the whole impact would be reversed or would there be a partial impact. As of now, there is no clarity.”

MahaGenco’s annual coal requirement is 36 million tonnes, which is procured by the state-run coal companies. The company imports about 3.5 million tonnes.

“Though under the GCV mechanism, prices are linked to the quality of coal, the reality is quite different. There is a need for joint sampling both by the coal companies and MahaGenco, as there is a huge difference between samplings at the time of loading and unloading,” Ratho said.

An Andhra Pradesh Generation Company (APGenco) official shared Ratho’s view on joint sampling, insisting the existing protocol in this regard be implemented. “Coal analysis and sampling should not be restricted merely to mining. It should be carried out at the receiving end as well….We will seek clarity on whether the rollback in prices would be restricted to F grade coal or to other grades as well,” he said.

Padmesh Gupta, chairman, Gupta Corporation, a company engaged in coal trading, said CIL’s decision to roll back the price rise was welcome. “However, the decision also shows the coal sector needs a regulator akin to that of the power sector. The regulator would regulate prices of coal according to coal production and generation.”

Power analyst D Radhakrishna also pitched for a regulatory mechanism for the sector. “The fact is Coal India wants trade parity, but there are problems in joint sampling and grade slippages,” he said.

Source : http://tiny.cc/zxbwi

The Budget for 2012-13 is unlikely to tinker with the rates or widen the slabs for both direct as well as indirect taxes, despite chambers seeking more money in the hands of people to prop demand. Economists have also demanded a rise in indirect tax rates to boost government finances.

A finance ministry official said the government needed to boost its revenue collections immediately and it would be difficult to widen personal income tax slabs further. “The last Budget had tried to bring tax slabs closer to those proposed in the Direct Taxes Code (DTC) and there is not much scope for any tinkering this time,” he said.

The DTC Bill, currently with a Parliament standing committee, proposes to tax annual income over Rs 2 lakh up to Rs 5 lakh at 10 per cent, more than Rs 5 lakh up to Rs 10 lakh at 20 per cent and income above Rs 10 lakh at 30 per cent a year. Currently, income over Rs 1.80 lakh up to Rs 5 lakh attracts 10 per cent income tax, over Rs 5 lakh up to Rs 8 lakh is taxed at 20 per cent and income above Rs 8 lakh is taxed at 30 per cent.

Finance ministry officials said there was scope for raising the tax exemption limit, which currently stands at Rs 1.80 lakh for men and Rs 1.90 lakh for women. The DTC Bill seeks to increase this limit to Rs 2 lakh a year for both the categories. Officials said the corporate tax rate may also be kept intact at 30 per cent (exclusive of cess and surcharge).

On the indirect tax front, officials said the excise duty and service tax rates may also be retained at the current level of 10 per cent. The ministry felt any rise in the rate could hurt the industry and raise inflation. The peak customs duty rate is also unlikely to be altered from the current 10 per cent, owing to fears of revenue loss and its impact on the domestic industry. However, specific proposals on tax rates could be altered. For instance, excise duty on diesel cars could be raised, the officials said.

Retaining the current tax rates means the government would have to depend on non-tax revenue and non-debt capital receipts to resume the path of fiscal consolidation, as suggested by the Reserve Bank of India.

Source :http://tiny.cc/0hheh

Firstpost has received an unauthenticated transcript of what appears to be a pre-budget conversation between four top leaders of the ruling party, all of whom think they are PM. One is the Real PM (Lady RPM), another a Dummy PM (DPM), the third has PM as his initials, and the fourth is a novice PM-in-waiting (PMW). Here’s what we heard.

PM: We are in a shoup. My fiscal deficit in December 2011 has already reached 92 percent of the year’s total, and taxes are not rising fast enough. I can’t raise money by selling public sector equity, but everyone wants more money from me: banks want more capital, the food and fertiliser departments want more subsidies, Air India wants a bailout, the oil companies want compensation for under-recoveries…What can I do madam?

Lady RPM: We should launch a scheme to give all Indians subsidised foodgrains, and free healthcare, and…

PM: But where will I find the money?

Lady RPM: Why do you need money? The Food Corporation already has the lot of food in stock…just distribute it.

PM: What will I do next year if the Food Corporation goes bankrupt?

Lady RPM: We will set up a new Food Security Corporation next year…Aruna or Harsh will head it.

PMW: And don’t forget special food quotas for Muslims…they must get a separate quota of food carved out of the OBC quota.

DPM: There can be no quotas in food – we are equal-opportunity poverty-poopers.

PMW: Then how will I win the UP election without food quotas?

Lady RPM: Relax beta, for now the job quota should confuse people enough to work. Leave the food quota for 2014…

PM: But my deficit will widen and economic growth will fall if we keeping printing notes to finance social schemes…

Lady RPM: Don’t you read the newspapers? Even I seem to know more economics than you. Last year’s GDP growth figure was lowered to 8.4 percent from 8.5 percent. The lower base means this year’s growth will look higher. Last year’s fiscal deficit was raised to 4.8 percent, so this year’s will be less than anticipated. Your problem is solved.

PM: It will all be fiction. Subbarao is already telling me he will not reduce interest rates if I don’t bring subsidies down. And if we raise oil and coal and power and fertiliser prices, the Wholesale Prices Index (WPI) will rise…

Lady RPM (sharply): Haven’t we decided to eliminate the weekly release of WPI inflation numbers? And who is Subbarao to tell us…

PM: Subbarao is Gov…

Lady RPM: I know who he is. Ask him not to look at the WPI. Or transfer him to Andamans. And isn’t there any way we can reduce WPI to once-a-year releases? Giving out inflation numbers every month is anti-national. The media makes a song and dance of it every week, every month. It defocuses us from doing our main job – which is to keep up aam aadmi spending and get re-elected. Once a year should be fine…Mannu dear, will you look into it?

DPM: Of course, RPMji. Maybe we should put it in the five-year plan. Will talk to Monty…

Lady RPM: Good boy.

DPM: I don’t lose any sleep over GDP and fiscal deficit numbers. In 1992, I didn’t lose sleep over the securities scam. More recently I didn’t lose sleep over CWG and 2G. I only lose sleep over you, RPMji. Now I have been vindicated in my do-nothing attitude by the Supreme Court. Subramanian Swamy is claiming victory, but it is I who have won…

Lady RPM: Good, that’s why I think you will make a great president. You can sleep in peace for five years without anyone bothering you, unless we want some opposition government dismissed somewhere.

DPM: Thank you-ji. You are so kind.

PM: But you can’t fool all the people all the time…Someday I will have to give the right numbers, bring interest rates down, and push growth up, but by then people will stop believing in us…

Lady RPM: You are such a worrier, borda. Here, have a rossogolla and be happy. It’s sugar-free. In any case, it was you who wanted the finance portfolio…

PM: But I have lost my appetite for it. Everyone is cursing me – for inflation, deficits, subsidies…

Lady RPM: Well, you wanted it. After 26/11, I even sent out your rival to fight Naxals just so you could have your chance with budgets.

DPM: In fact, I know just the man who could take your job in case you are leaving…My friend Mon…

Lady RPM: Enough. Haven’t I told you key ministries are not for your pals. You can take as many of them as you want in advisory bodies, but not finance…Haven’t I done that with NAC? All my unemployable friends are there…

PMW: Plus, the Planning Commission is more fun. Daddy called Planning Commission a bunch of jokers. They have worked out many funny lines between them. Some time back they said Rs 32 is the official poverty line…Only Aruna auntie was unable to get the joke….

Lady RPM: Beta, why aren’t you in UP offering more quotas and making haathi jokes instead of wasting your time here?

PMW: But I want to learn how budgets are made, how to give more subsidies…

Lady RPM: Let Bengali uncle handle that. Once he’s does that for two more years, you will be PM in 2014…Besides, it’s simple. All you have to do is write big, fat cheques to favour your voters.

PM: But how will I manage the numbers for two more years before he becomes PM? I will be a pariah among global finance ministers – Greece will be my only friend…

Lady RPM: I think you are getting too old. Why don’t you ask Anandji? He seems to know how to manage numbers every month. See what he has done with exports. It’s boomed, it’s zoomed, it’s got adjusted by $9.4 billion, and no one knows what is happening. Now no one bothers whether exports are going up or down. It’s all fun and games. You take your job too seriously, PM-da. You, too, can use excuses like data entry error, software glitch and computer crash to tell everyone why the deficit is going up or down or whatever…Come on use your imagination. This is a creative job.

You just have to put out some numbers and tell the media: “Honey, I shrunk the deficit, but don’t ask how.”

PM: Give me at least one hint…

Lady RPM: Just give your fiscal deficit figures in billion instead of crore and it will shrink…

PM (brightening up): I have seen the light.

Lady RPM: Big Bong, you’re getting it. Just be sweet and do it for two more years. Till Baba replaces you-know-who. If you don’t want the job after that, I will check if Aruna wants it.

DPM: Maybe PC will take it…

Lady RPM: Not Chidambaram…

DPM: No, I meant my all-powerful secretary.

Source : http://tiny.cc/yrorv

The Supreme Court’s verdict in the 2G scam — to cancel all the 122 licences issued in 2008 — will affect more than just the companies whose licences were cancelled.

Here’s a quick run-down of the various parties that will be affected by this decisive verdict.

Customers:
According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, only 5 percent of the active subscriber base in India is likely to be affected by the cancellation of the licences.

Given that India has 894 million mobile users, close to 45 million subscribers will have to change their service providers if the affected telecom companies do not apply for new licenses. Porting out, however, should be relatively painless because of number portability. In addition, there’s no need to take immediate action because the affected companies can operate on cancelled licences for four months.

Companies:
According to this Firstpost report, 11 companies have been severely affected by the Supreme Court decision. Nine licenses of Idea, three of Tata Tele, 21 licenses of Videocon, 22 of Uninor, 13 of Swan and 21 of Loop have been cancelled. In a report, Citigroup said the biggest losers of the verdict would be new entrants like Swan, Uninor and Sistema. Bharti Airtel and Vodafone are seen as the biggest gainers, no license of Bharti was cancelled.

More importantly, with the exit of some smaller players, pricing power returns to the incumbents. Already, media reports have said that companies are planning to raise tariffs — currently among the lowest in the world — by about 30 percent. The top  mobile operators will now be able to raise prices with more freedom and without worrying about pesky competition.

Consolidation is inevitable, and an Angel Broking report pointed out that the number of companies in the overcrowded sector could come down to 9-10 from 14.

Foreign Investors:
Foreign investors are understandably upset about the licence cancellations. Norway’s Telenor, which has a joint venture with Uninor, whose licences were cancelled, said it might quit India and not even wait for new market rules to be announced in the wake of the court’s decision. Other said government-controlled investors, like Russia’s Sistema and UAE’s Etisalat, would also think twice before making any further investments in India.

In the short term, the cancellation of the licences will dent investor confidence in the telecom sector, however, the Supreme Court’s decision is a mighty attempt at breaking the nexus between businessmen and politicians, and is likely to help reduce corruption in the long term.

Banks:
Loans to the telecom sector account for 3 percent of the portfolio of the banking industry, according to this Firstpost story. Yes Bank has the maximum exposure to the telecom sector (5 percent of its total loan portfolio), according to CLSA. The report also said Canara Bank, PNB, Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda, Oriental bank of Commerce, SBI, Corporation Bank and HDFC Bank had more than 1 percent of their loan book exposed to the sector.

Not all of these loans will become problematic. Only those loans given in relation to the 2G license run the threat of becoming a bad asset.  In that respect, Punjab National Bank probably has the most to worry about, as a CNBC TV-18 report said that it had lent to all the telecom companies whose licences were cancelled.

For now, most banks are trying to downplay the impact of the decision. SBI, for instance, said   its exposure to the 2G licences was just Rs 1,100 crore for project expansions. Yet, the blow cannot be underestimated as it comes at a time when the asset quality of banks is already facing severe stress.

Telecom vendors:
More than a billion dollars in information technology outsourcing contracts hang in the balance. Several vendors, including Nokia Siemens, Ericsson, Huawei and Wipro, are likely to be affected since they have contracts with the affected telecom companies. For instance, Nokia and Siemens have contracts with Uninor, while Tech Mahindra has a contract with Etisalat, which was estimated to fetch $400-500 million, according to Business Standard.

According to Business Line, the biggest impact will be felt by Chinese vendor Huawei, which inked deals with practically all the newer telecom players.

Tower Companies:
Tower companies are expected to be marginal losers, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. The brokerage said demand for additional tenancies from the new smaller operators would be lost, leading to lower tenancy ratios. On the other hand, if the incumbents take over additional spectrum, there could be demand for additional tenancies from them, which could compensate, it added.

Source : http://tiny.cc/o654l

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said government has moved “substantially forward” in curbing corruption and improving public services delivery system but acknowledged there is “still a long way” to go to ensure transparency, accountability and probity in public life.

Addressing the Conference of Chief Secretaries here, the Prime Minister also expressed confidence that a strong Lokpal law would be enacted soon.

Singh recalled that last year he had emphasised the need for a systemic response that reduced opportunities for corruption in public life and had stated that his government was committed to taking all legal and administrative measures to curb the menace.

“I had also said that we should make full use of advances in modern technology to improve the delivery of our public services system. We have moved substantially forward in these areas in the last one year,” he said.

The Prime Minister cited the Citizen’s Charter and the Electronic Delivery of Services bills introduced in Parliament last year as examples.

Noting that “unfortunately, the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bills could not be passed in the last session of Parliament”, Singh said he does hope that the government “would soon be able to enact a strong Lokpal law”.

The Prime Minister also referred to the government’s plan to frame a law for regulating public procurement, implementing national e-governance plan and providing ‘Aadhar’ numbers.

“All this builds upon our earlier initiatives such as the Right to Information Act, the Judicial Accountability Bill and the Whistle Blowers Bill. But, we still have a long way to go in our efforts for ensuring transparency, accountability and probity in public life,” he said.

Hailing as “creditable” the growth rate of the country’s economy at the rate of 8.4 per cent in the backdrop of a crisis-ridden world economy, Singh said that the growth in the current financial year is, however, likely to be lower between 7 to 7.5 per cent in a large measure due to the continuing uncertainty in the global economic environment.

While noting that inflation was a persistent problem during the course of last year, particularly with regard to food items, the Prime Minister said the government took several measures to ease supply constraints that were a cause for rising prices.

“This coupled with the policy of monetary tightening that the Reserve Bank adopted has led to a continuous decrease in inflationary pressure in primary food articles in recent weeks.

“The overall inflation has also eased. But, monetary tightening together with a difficult global economic environment, particularly the lingering Euro Zone crisis, has impacted the rate of growth adversely”, he said.

Singh said that the key to controlling inflation in food articles on a sustainable basis lay in increasing agricultural production and productivity in which the “state governments have a crucial role to play”.

He also urged states to give more attention to areas such as modernisation of agricultural research and agricultural extension system, public investment in agriculture, and reform of the agricultural marketing system and practices.

The Prime Minister felt there was a need to review and amend the Agriculture Produce Marketing Act to enable farmers to bring their products to retail outlets and also allow retailers to directly purchase from the farmers.

He said this would bring better remuneration to farmers, check wastage and allow competitive prices to prevail in retail markets.

Source : http://tiny.cc/vj56s

The country’s sugar industry hopes a high-level committee instituted by the government to look into the crucial issue of decontrol in the sector will not become yet another exercise of a recommendatory nature. Its captains are looking forward to prompt implementation of the recommendations in a future report by the panel headed by C Rangarajan, chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council.

The industry, which estimates sugar production of about 26 million tonnes by the end of the current crushing season and a fall in the 2012-13 season, believes the time is ripe for the government to de-regulate the sector. The players hope that it will be a reality soon.

Officials at the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) and the Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma) recall that four committees have so far made comprehensive policy recommendations to decontrol the sector. These bodies were the Sugar Industry Enquiry Commission headed by V Bhargava (1974), another chaired by former food secretary B B Mahajan (1998), one headed by former food secretary S K Tuteja on revitalisation of the sugar industry (2004) and a fourth chaired by the former chairman of National Bank for Agriculture & Rural Development Y S P Thorat on the sugar economy and the way forward (2009). All these panels had sought complete decontrol that could be phased over two to five years.

Thorat recalls that his committee had recommended decontrol in three to five years. “The argument was that the sugar industry had come to a maturity where it could be left to find its own way within a broad regulatory framework,” he told Business Standard. “The time has come for government to withdraw (from the sector).”

Shivajirao Girdhar Patil, an executive board member of NFCSF, hopes the formation of a panel headed by an official in charge of a prime minister’s council will this time prompt the the government to take the “bold” decision of decontrolling the sector.

“I was the member of both the Mahajan and Tuteja committees which called for a complete decontrol. However, the government has yet to take decision (on their recommendations),” he notes. “The current year’s sugar production is believed to be able to meet the country’s demand. So, now is the opportune moment. It is another matter that a fall in output is expected next year.”

According to Isma, the sugar industry should be “totally decontrolled” — in two or three phases, if need arises. Also, there is an urgent need to remove the levy obligation for the industry and abolition of the monthly regulated release mechanism. Isma further argues that the sugarcane price should be fixed directly linked to the sugar and byproduct prices. The government needs to immediately finalise the price policy of ethanol; and the export policy must be freed to give freedom to generate funds at the right time, according to an Isma official.

He says India is a “unique” case where the central government decides how much sugar each mill can sell every month. “The sugar mills have no controls over their cash flows, they are forced to carry large sugar inventories and borrow huge working capital at 14-16 per cent interest to finance large sugar stocks,” the official notes.

By March every year, he points out, the sugar stocks stuck with mills is worth around Rs 45,000 crore. “This increases the net cost of production of sugar. No other industry in India is subjected to such a control. No other country — including even the less developed ones like Kenya or Tanzania — has such an archaic system,” he adds.

DECONTROL SAGA * B B Mahajan committee suggested decontrol from the beginning of the sugar season

* Tuteja panel called for determination of sugarcane price by market forces

* Thorat’s body suggested doing away with sugar release mechanism

* Isma & National Federation sense archaic controls harming the sugar sector’s growth

Chadha, according to I-T sources, is in Dubai at present in connection with a family function.

The searches, which began at 10.30 in the morning, were initiated after the department got inputs regarding alleged tax evasion by companies associated with him, the sources said.

The department, according to the sources, were also looking at the possibility of illegal sale of liquor by certain firms in the run up to the UP Assembly polls.

I-T sleuths also searched the properties of two of his alleged associates — Lalit Kapoor and Gurjeet Kochhar — in Delhi and is expected to question them about certain transactions.

The searches were conducted by the Delhi-based criminal investigation unit of the department and, according to the sources, they were related to the alleged mis-pricing of huge liquor consignments in the state and other places.

Sources said the department conducted the operation after gathering intelligence and other inputs about Chadha and his businesses in the last four months.

Chadha, who runs one of the largest liquor businesses in the state with numerous dealerships, also has business interest in cinema and multiplex sectors.

Source : http://tinyurl.com/7d4q63h

The French nuclear safety regulatory authority (ASN) has said there is no need to change the design of the evolutionary pressurised reactors (EPRs) to be installed at the Jaitapur project in Maharashtra. AREVA India chairman and managing director Arthur de Montalembert, in an interview with Sanjay Jog, says this only confirms the company’s engineering capability and emphasis on safety. Edited excerpts:

What are your views on ASN’s report on the safety of French nuclear power plants?
We welcome the ASN report. It has confirmed the fact that the EPRs, being constructed in Finland, France and China, have the capability to withstand severe circumstances. It is a testimony to AREVA’s engineering capability and emphasis it puts on safety. As you may be aware, the EPR is a Generation III+ reactor that incorporates a number of redundant active, as well as passive safety features. The EPR is the successor of the highly successful Konvoi and N4 plants. The two have seen more than a hundred years of safe and efficient operations. The primary difference between previous reactors and the EPR is not only does the EPR make an accident unlikely, extensive accident mitigation features are also incorporated in the design.

How can EPRs withstand severe accidents?
The EPR takes into account, in a deterministic manner, the risk of severe accidents from the design stage, reflecting that the safety of the plant is of paramount importance. Therefore, its various operational features are designed keeping safety in mind. The EPR is among the first designs to feature a ‘core catcher’, which essentially captures the entire nuclear material in the unlikely scenario of a complete meltdown. There are several power back-ups and cooling systems, which provide over 400 per cent redundancy in case of the loss of grid power to the plant. Each of the power generators can help keep the EPR cool. Several protected water tanks and cooling systems, capable of handling extreme situations, are also present.

Does the EPR design for the 9,900 Mw Jaitapur project in Maharashtra need any modification?
As you are aware, AREVA is the Nuclear Power Corporation (NPC)’s equipment supplier. NPC provides the technical specifications and plant requirements, under the supervision of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, India’s nuclear regulator. From a safety perspective, as of now, we believe there is no need for any significant change in the existing design and plant layout. However, from a functionality and/or ease of construction perspective, changes may take place. We believe we have provided the most robust design and safe system, a fact ASN has confirmed. At this point, we believe we have designed and proposed the most safe, efficient and robust EPR that suits NPC’s requirements. Our discussions have been ongoing and encouraging.

Would there be any escalation in costs, given the addition of safety applications in EPRs after Fukushima accident?
After the ASN report, we believe no ‘out of the ordinary’ changes are required in the EPR, from a safety perspective. So, we think there should not be any significant impact on investment costs. Of course, all project partners are trying to reduce costs and optimise these, owing to greater localisation.

With how many Indian manufacturers has AREVA tied up to achieve localisation?
Localisation is a continuing process. There would be a large number of suppliers/vendors who would eventually be involved when the EPR project is implemented in India. At the moment, we are already working with L&T to manufacture components for some of our utility customers in North America. We have also held discussions on possible future projects with Bharat Forge. These are only a few examples. AREVA is also active in India in the field of solar and biomass renewable energy. Here, localisation is also a condition for budgets and project delivery on time.

Source : http://tinyurl.com/6t2kgu5

As Budget day inches closer, market and economy watchers are keeping their fingers crossed for some big-bang reform announcements.

Here’s what Rajiv Kumar, secretary general of industry body Ficcci, had to say after he and a group of economists met the government to discuss what to expect from the forthcoming budget proposals, expected to be tabled in Parliament on 15 March.

“I think the overall theme would be fiscal consolidation as the finance minister is aware of the rise in fiscal deficit and the impact it is having on both on managing inflation and on investors expectations,” he said.

Fiscal deficit is a growing problem for India and most experts believe the goverment will overshoot its 4.6 percent target by a wide margin. Already, the fiscal gap between April and December is 92 percent of what was targeted for the whole year.

M Govind Rao, economic advisor to the prime minister, said India’s fiscal deficit is likely to be 1 percentage point higher than 4.6 percent.

Apart from fiscal consolidation, there will also be a focus on restoring investor confidence and the India growth story. Many economists have pointed out that while consumption has held up despite high interest rates and a sluggish economy, investments have slumped.

Source : http://tinyurl.com/7n4956m

Another round of fuel price hikes may be inevitable. Analysts tracking the oil sector believe that with headline inflation easing, the government might enforce another round of price hikes after state elections are over.

That will bring some relief to oil marketing companies (OMCs) – HPCL, BPCL and IOC – which are already reeling under severe pressure and clocked their worst-ever financial performances recently, recording their highest-ever quarterly losses in the first half of the financial year ending March 2012.

In a recent report, Motilal Oswal Securities says that while reforms in the sector are highly necessary over the long term, price hikes in the near term are inevitable.

“OMCs are currently losing Rs 13/litre in diesel, Rs 28.5/litre in kerosene and Rs 326/cylinder in LPG. We believe that the political compulsions would ease post the five state assembly elections. As headline inflation has reduced from double-digits to 7.4 percent in December 2011, and is likely to moderate further in 1HCY12 (the first half of calendar 2012), we expect some price hikes,” the brokerage says.

“Our base case inflation estimate indicates moderation from current level of 7.5 percent to 5.4 percent in July 2012 itself. Lower inflation and the end of state elections should relatively ease the pressure on government and help it to take bold steps like price hikes at the least,” it adds.

OMC stocks have also corrected sharply in the past six months as a result of these under-recoveries (subsidy losses) and have underperformed the broader indices.

Most analysts think the poor quarterly results, however, cannot continue and will be largely transitory, since the government and upstream (exploration and production) companies will eventually compensate them.

The other positives are that Brent crude, a global benchmark, is at about $110 a barrel, with a downward bias led by demand concerns, and a likely moderation in the interest rates.

Over the long term, the emergence of diversified earnings (non-subsidy linked) and subsidy rationalisation will be positives for oil marketing companies, Motilal Oswal says.

The combined debt of oil marketing companies currently stands at Rs 1,20,000 crore, and given the lending norms of the banks, analysts believe the government is unlikely to allow these companies to bleed too much because that would prompt banks to cut their credit lines to them.

No doubt, lower-than-expected tax receipts and a higher subsidy burden have thrown government calculations off-gear. Add to that the possibility of the government missing this financial year’s disinvestment and fiscal deficit targets.

For the oil sector, however, analysts say the key driving factors for reforms will be inflation and political issues.

Source : http://tinyurl.com/8y6b35a

The markets are up, the rupee has rallied and inflation is down, what a terrible place to be in with just a month to go before the budget.

Yes, last month was the best January for the Sensex in 18 years, since 1994. And yes that does call for a toast, because even if you didn’t invest in the rally to make fresh money, your portfolio must be up, so let’s say cheers to that.

But after raising your glass, draining it and putting it down, you may need to start worrying again, because what this rally could do, coming as it does after we have had various Corporate Gurus telling us that, “7% growth is a great place to be at”, is to raise complacency levels in Delhi. And that is a horrible thing to happen at a time when the finance ministry and the PMO battle to convince 10 Janpath that a restrained budget is the need of the year. What they could so imperiously be told now is to stop being such boring bean counters and to get on with the business of investing our tax money for their votes, because “hey things are clearly not as bad as economic advisors and the RBI governors seem to think.”

But if anyone is listening do consider these numbers:

We weren’t the only markets to rally in January, the Dow and the S&P had their best January’s in 15 years, since 1997 and the younger Nasdaq saw its best year opening rally since 2001. Admittedly none of these indices shot up anywhere near as much as the 11 odd percent that the Indian markets did, the Dow and the S&P were up about 4%, and the Nasdaq was up 8%. Closer home the S Korean Markets and Hong Kong were up over 7%, Egypt though was up 26%. The point is that there was liquidity sloshing around global markets in January and a lot of it landed in India — FIIs pumped in over $2 billion into our markets — tempted no doubt by beaten down share prices and the weak rupee.

But now as valuations have climbed and the rupee has strengthened they are going to be looking at other things more carefully, particularly at the big numbers. So here are some of those numbers, and let me warn you they don’t present a pretty picture.

The April-December fiscal deficit numbers are out and we are already at 92 per cent of what was estimated in the budget last year, the average for this time of the year is 64%, so we are already in very dangerous territory. And if you consider that the current run rate of tax revenue is 7.5% versus a budgetary estimate of 17.9%, while expenditure is shooting up at 13.9% against the budgetary estimate of 3.4%, we are clearly going to be hugely out of whack. I am not going to guess what the final deficit number to be announced in the budget will be, because that will also be a factor of how much of the accounting for oil subsidy will be deferred to 2012, or how much the divestment shortfall will be cushioned, but it’s going to be way above the proposed path of 4.6% in 2012 and 4.1% in 2013. But of course Investors have factored that in.

So while it is tempting to point at our performance and say that when a “risk on trade” rally is underway an investor has already taken our poor macro numbers into account and thinks we are still worth the risk lets not forget that the universe of “Risk on markets”, markets outside the US that investors look at when they are in the mood for a bit of calculated flutter, has gotten bigger. It now includes the beaten down European markets, so some of the money that would have only gone to emerging markets in the past could well be finding allocations in Europe. And also let’s not forget the best days in January for the Indian markets were the last ten, that’s when the Chinese markets were closed for the Chinese New Year, and as they open they will be doing a lot of catching up as well.

So the Indian markets could well have seen the last of the big flood of value driven liquidity. From here on wise money is likely to be looking at the budget for further direction. And what they will be watching out for is, to quote Citi Economist Rohini Malkani’s latest Macro Economic Flash is “(a) Fiscal consolidation – revenue raising and subsidy containment and (b) structural reforms, particularly in the infra/agri space”.

So don’t loosen those purse strings just yet, with two years, hopefully to go for the next general elections, good economics as a former finance minister said could just well turn out to be good politics and work for everyone in the long run.

Senthil Chengalvarayan is President & Editorial Director of TV18 Business Media. Network18 owns Firstpost.

Source : http://tinyurl.com/6rxwrlr